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Texas Victory Map

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Making an Impact

The suit, filed against Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott... accuses Abbott of targeting minority voters in his prosecution of the provisions in a "deliberate campaign to suppress the minority vote."...

The group behind the lawsuit is the Lone Star Project
(Fort Worth Star-Telegram, 9/22/2006)


The Democrats at the Lone Star Project say U.S. Attorney General Al Gonzales and U.S. Attorney Johnny Sutton in San Antonio blew their chance to bring justice to the Texas Youth Commission sexual abuse case.
(Houston Chronicle Blog, 3/15/2007)


David Dewhurst has said most Texans don't have much sympathy "for someone who that can't fill out a two page [health insurance] application every six months".

The Democrat-supported Lone Star Project in Washington reported this week that Dewhurst failed to file necessary forms at least six times in recent years.
(San Antonio Expres News,, 4/12/2007)


The Justice staff memo was obtained by the Lone Star Project ...The story broke the same day the U.S. Supreme Court was considering legal challenges to the plan brought by Democrats and minority groups.
(Houston Chronicle, 12/3/2005)


The Texas chapter of the NAACP, along with the Lone Star Project, have analyzed the amicus brief filed by the Justice Department and have concluded, justifiably, that the Voting Rights section of the Justice Department is now controlled by partisan political appointees.
(Roll Call - Donna Brazile, 2/28/2006)

Using the Lone Star Project as an information clearinghouse for all things DeLay. The organization "particularly became relevant as the unethical activities of Tom DeLay came more to light."
(The Fix – Washington Post,3/6/2006)


What's more, the relevant 73-page memo "has been kept under tight wraps" since then. That memo is now publicly available, here in PDF at the Lone Star Project.
(Hotline, 12/2/2005)


 

State House Challenger Edition
LSP Victory Map Shows Campaigns to Watch and Join

Since the Texas primary run-off, the Lone Star Project has been asked by dozens of activists and donors to help identify the most competitive Democratic challenger and Democratic incumbent races leading into the 2008 General Election. While it’s too early to make final choices or to give up on any candidate, there are a number of campaigns that are already poised to compete fiercely in the fall. At the same time, we must vigorously defend a handful of Democratic incumbents that Republicans will target.

Victory Map
Today, the Lone Star Project is launching its Texas Victory Map. We will provide candidate profiles and district details on campaigns the Lone Star Project supports and we urge others to help them as well.

Our first report details challenge races where Texas House Democratic candidates are moving into position to claim a GOP held seat. In the coming weeks, we will feature House Democratic incumbents in tough re-election fights as well as key State Senate and Congressional seats in play. Our Texas Victory Map will be updated throughout the campaign season in the hope that the challenger list grows and the competitive incumbent list shrinks.

District Analysis and Challenger Information

Hunter

District 19
Incumbent:
“Tuffy” Hamilton
Democratic Challenger: Larry Hunter
Location: Hardin – East Texas
Website: www.ElectLarryHunter.com
Kerry 2004: 31.7%
Moody 2006: 45.4%
DPI 2008: 40.2%

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Larry Hunter is a highly qualified candidate seeking election to the State House after serving as City Attorney of Rose City, on the Vidor School Board, as a Municipal Judge and Mayor of Vidor.  District 19 is in East Texas on the Texas-Louisiana border near Beaumont. Hunter is running against Mike “Tuffy” Hamilton who was first elected in 2002. Hamilton has routinely under-preformed in the district running 13 points behind George W. Bush in 2004.


Note on Primary Data: Primary Data in our charts was captured from the Secretary of State and County Board of Elections voter level data and matched to a voter file. The SOS has not yet released final totals, so the numbers are incomplete. Some figures are approximately 10% below the actual numbers depending on geographic location.

Maldonado

District 52
Incumbent:
OPEN - Bryan Daniel (Krusee)
Democratic Challenger: Diana Maldonado
Location: Williamson County – Central Texas
Website: www.DianaMaldonado.com
Kerry 2004: 38.7%
Moody 2006: 47.8%
DPI 2008: 42.2%

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Diana Maldonado, former President of the Round Rock Independent School District Board of Trustees, is particularly well-suited to run for the open seat vacated by Mike Krusee. District 52 lies just north of Austin in a rapidly growing part of the state that continues to become more Democratic. Maldonado has been endorsed by Annie’s List and continues to be a strong fundraiser. Her opponent, Bryan Daniel, needed a run-off to win the Republican nomination for the seat and has never been elected to office.

Hunter

District 78
Incumbent:
OPEN - Dee Margo (Haggerty)
Democratic Challenger: Joseph Moody
Location: El-Paso
Kerry 2004: 44.3%
Moody 2006: 59.3%
DPI 2008: 45.9%

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Joe Moody is running against Dee Margo in the most Democratic Texas House District currently held by a Republican. Margo shares the views of far right Republicans, which he leveraged to defeat the more moderate Pat Haggerty in the GOP primary. Joe Moody is a smart, young local prosecutor with a bright future. His father Bill Moody received almost 60% of the vote in District 78 in his bid for State Supreme Court in 2006.

Turner
District 96
Incumbent:
Bill Zedler
Democratic Challenger: Chris Turner
Web: www.voteChrisTurner.com
Location: Tarrant County
Kerry 2004: 37.3%
Moody 2006: 47.2%
DPI 2008: 42.5%

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District 96 is in southern Tarrant County and sits between the districts recently captured by Democrats Dan Barrett and Paula Pierson.  HD96 displays Democratic growth patterns similar to those two districts. Chris Turner is an excellent centrist candidate with a strong sense of responsibility to voters. He is the former District Director for popular Congressman Chet Edwards. Turner is an ideal candidate to run against Bill Zedler, an unpopular partisan Republican and Craddick loyalist who received just 52% against an unknown and unfunded challenger in 2006.
Kent

District 101
Incumbent: Open –
Mike Anderson (Latham)
Democratic Challenger: Robert Miklos
Location: Dallas County - Mesquite
Web: www.RobertMiklos.com
Kerry 2004: 40.3%
Moody 2006: 48.8%
DPI 2008: 43.8%

19




District 101 is an East Dallas County District that is becoming increasingly Democratic. Bill Moody received just under 49% of the vote in the District in 2006, while running for the Texas Supreme Court. This bodes well for Democratic candidate Robert Miklos, who has an impressive resume as an attorney and former Dallas County Prosecutor.  Mike Anderson won a Republican primary over the incumbent Thomas Latham, making this an open seat pickup opportunity.

Miklos

District 102
Incumbent:
Tony Goolsby
Democratic Challenger: Carol Kent
Web: www.ElectCarolKent.com
Location: Dallas County
Kerry 2004: 43.8%
Moody 2006: 46.2%
DPI 2008: 42.2%

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District 102 is a north Dallas District with a significant Democratic base slowly overtaking traditional Republican neighborhoods. Incumbent Republican Tony Goolsby managed to hold the district in ’04 and ’06, but only after stooping to controversial and possibly illegal vote suppression tactics. Goolsby is currently being sued for libel and slander making him even more vulnerable than in earlier cycles. (Read more here) Carol Kent is a moderate Democrat, life-long District resident and former President of the Richardson Independent School District. Her background in education and her strong local ties make Carol a perfect fit for this Dallas County District.
Thibaut

District 133
Incumbent:
Jim Murphy
Democratic Challenger: Kristi Thibaut
Location: West - Houston
Kerry 2004: 43.9%
Moody 2006: 43.8%
DPI 2008: 42.1%

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Kristi Thibaut is running in this evolving Houston district against “far right” freshmen Republican Jim Murphy. Kristi is a local businesswoman, highly regarded for her work with the local Chapter of the American Heart Association, and her work promoting youth hunting and firearms safety. Thibaut ran several points ahead of other Democrats in 2006, and the district is expected to perform better in a presidential year.
Redmond

District 144
Incumbent: OPEN
- Ken Legler (Talton)
Democratic Challenger: Joel Redmond
Location: Houston - Pasadena
Kerry 2004: 35.8%
Moody 2006: 44.9%
DPI 2008: 39.8%

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Joel Redmond is a well qualified candidate running in District 144, the seat vacated by Robert Talton, based in Pasadena in Southeast Harris County. Redmond is a conservative Pasadena native perfectly suited for his district. He is a businessman and lay minister. He is running against first-time candidate Ken Legler, a right wing Republican who barely won a runoff election over a moderate school board member in the Republican Primary.  Legler is a board member for the Texas Association of Business, which was implicated in the felony charges against Tom DeLay.

Four more candidates working their way onto the Map
In every campaign cycle there are candidates who are underestimated but who perform better than their districts or overcome other early obstacles . The four races below face additional challenges to stay competitive in the Fall, but the Democratic nominees are quickly making strides to join the top tier.  These are good candidates who may emerge as top challengers very soon.

Murphey

District 55
Incumbent: OPEN -
Ralph Sheffield (Delisi)
Democratic Challenger: Sam Murphey
Location: Killeen -Central Texas
Web: www.SamMurphey.com
Kerry 2004: 27.8%
Moody 2006: 37.9%
DPI 2008 : 33.3%

19

Sam  Murphey’s military background and career as popular Congressmen Chet Edward’s District Director make this a much more competitive race than the numbers may show. The combination of a good candidate running for an open seat against a Republican nominee tainted by an ugly primary may put this District on the Texas Victory Map.
Vule

District 112
Incumbent:
OPEN - Angie Chen Button (Hill)
Democratic Challenger: Sandra VuLe
Location: Richardson/Garland
Web: www.SandraVuLe.com
Kerry 2004: 35.4%
Moody 2006: 41.8%
DPI 2008: 36.8%

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Sandra VuLe is a smart, tough candidate running a vigourous race for the open seat abandoned by retiring Republican Fred Hill. Her opponent, Angie Chen Button, barely survived a nasty Republican runoff. Button has supported Democrats in the past and will likely have trouble with the Republican base. Meanwhile, VuLe’s passion and deep roots in the community and the district’s significant Vietnamese population give her significant crossover appeal

Matula

District 129
Incumbent:
John E. Davis
Democratic Challenger: Sherrie L. Matula
Location: SW Harris Ct.
Web:
http://SherrieMatula.com
Kerry 2004:
32.2%
Moody 2006:
39.2%
DPI 2008:
34.4%

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Sherrie Matula’s lifetime of work as a teacher and school board member contrasts sharply with John Davis' votes in the House to cut CHIP and give inflated contracts to Accenture. Matula is a passionate campaigner and aggressive fundraiser.  Davis ran more then 10 points behind most Republican candidates in 2006, showing vulnerability.

McDavid

District 138
Incumbent:
Dwayne Bohac
Democratic Challenger: Virginia McDavid
Location: Houston
Web: www.VoteMcDavid.com
Kerry 2004: 39.7%
Moody 2006:
45.1%
DPI 2008:
40.0%

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Virginia “Ginny” McDavid is running a spirited race against Dwayne Bohac in District 138. McDavid has inspired a significant activist following in the District. This, coupled with the Democratic resurgence in Harris County, should help McDavid as she works to knock off Bohac.

 

 

 
 
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