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Lone Star Project Report

Poll Shows Tea Party Republican Konni Burton in Trouble

Mainstream Texas voters turning away from ideologically divisive and hyper-partisan Republican officeholders

Some Republican officeholders in San Antonio this weekend don’t realize they are likely attending their last Republican State Convention as elected officials.  Early polls reviewed by the Lone Star Project give Texas voters worried about the extreme and divisive actions of current Texas Republicans reason to be hopeful.   A number of mainstream Democrats running in key districts are polling stronger than we’ve seen in a decade and are in position to win in November. 
 
Here’s one of the best examples:
 

Senate District 10 Poll Shows Tea Party Republican Konni Burton in Trouble

Senate District 10 (Tarrant County) is the most competitive State Senate District in Texas.  It is the only District not politically gerrymandered by Republicans in 2011.  District 10 boundaries are exactly the same as when Wendy Davis captured the district from an entrenched Republican incumbent 2008 and won re-election against a fully funded GOP challenger in 2012.
 
Tea Party Republican Konni Burton won District 10 as an open seat in the 2014 Republican wave election.  Since then, Burton has failed to consolidate, much less expand, her support. Burton has alienated mainstream voters across the board and broken with key businesscivic and neighborhood school leaders in every part of the district.  Both politically and financially, Burton is dependent upon West Texas and Austin-based donors and harshly divisive ideological special interests like the dark money organization Empower Texans.
 
Yesterday, the Texas Tribune reported on the recent poll conducted in SD10.  The Lone Star Project has been able to examine the poll, and it shows that Republican incumbent Konni Burton in serious danger of losing her seat.  The poll sample is made up of likely registered voters and is balanced racially and geographically.  Here are the key results.

Initial head-to-head preference before candidate bios are given:

Informed head-to-head after bios are provided:

SD10 Poll should encourage voters and donors

The poll should encourage voters in Senate District 10 to further consolidate around Democrat Beverly Powell and encourage donors that contributions to Powell will ensure that she unseats Konni Burton – arguably the most divisive and ideological member of the Texas Senate.

More good news about Texas Democrats challenging vulnerable Republicans

Mainstream Texas voters are fed up with ideological and divisive Republicans across the state.  Along with the Senate District 10 poll discussed above, a recent poll in Houston-based Congressional District 7 showed Democrat Lizzie Fletcher within 2 points of 20-year Republican incumbent John Culberson.
 
In Dallas, a recent survey in Texas Senate District 16 showed Democrat Nathan Johnson just one point behind Konni Burton-like Tea Party Republican ideologue, Don Huffines.
 
Unless the overall political dynamics in Texas change considerably, expect to hear similar results in other polls in the weeks ahead.