Today, the Lone Star Project is launching its “Texas Victory Map.” We will provide candidate profiles and district details on campaigns the Lone Star Project supports and we urge others to help them as well.
Our first report details challenge races where Texas House Democratic candidates are moving into position to claim a GOP held seat. In the coming weeks, we will feature House Democratic incumbents in tough re-election fights as well as key State Senate and Congressional seats in play. Our Texas Victory Map will be updated throughout the campaign season in the hope that the challenger list grows and the competitive incumbent list shrinks.
District Analysis and Challenger Information
District 19
Incumbent: “Tuffy” Hamilton
Democratic Challenger: Larry Hunter
Location: Hardin – East Texas
Website: www.ElectLarryHunter.com
Kerry 2004: 31.7%
Moody 2006: 45.4%
DPI 2008: 40.2%
Larry Hunter is a highly qualified candidate seeking election to the State House after serving as City Attorney of Rose City, on the Vidor School Board, as a Municipal Judge and Mayor of Vidor. District 19 is in East Texas on the Texas-Louisiana border near Beaumont. Hunter is running against Mike “Tuffy” Hamilton who was first elected in 2002. Hamilton has routinely under-preformed in the district running 13 points behind George W. Bush in 2004.
Note on Primary Data: Primary Data in our charts was captured from the Secretary of State and County Board of Elections voter level data and matched to a voter file. The SOS has not yet released final totals, so the numbers are incomplete. Some figures are approximately 10% below the actual numbers depending on geographic location.
District 52
Incumbent: OPEN – Bryan Daniel (Krusee)
Democratic Challenger: Diana Maldonado
Location: Williamson County – Central Texas
Website: www.DianaMaldonado.com
Kerry 2004: 38.7%
Moody 2006: 47.8%
DPI 2008: 42.2%
Diana Maldonado, former President of the Round Rock Independent School District Board of Trustees, is particularly well-suited to run for the open seat vacated by Mike Krusee. District 52 lies just north of Austin in a rapidly growing part of the state that continues to become more Democratic. Maldonado has been endorsed by Annie’s List and continues to be a strong fundraiser. Her opponent, Bryan Daniel, needed a run-off to win the Republican nomination for the seat and has never been elected to office.
District 78
Incumbent: OPEN – Dee Margo (Haggerty)
Democratic Challenger: Joseph Moody
Location: El-Paso
Kerry 2004: 44.3%
Moody 2006: 59.3%
DPI 2008: 45.9%
Joe Moody is running against Dee Margo in the most Democratic Texas House District currently held by a Republican. Margo shares the views of far right Republicans, which he leveraged to defeat the more moderate Pat Haggerty in the GOP primary. Joe Moody is a smart, young local prosecutor with a bright future. His father Bill Moody received almost 60% of the vote in District 78 in his bid for State Supreme Court in 2006.
District 96
Incumbent: Bill Zedler
Democratic Challenger: Chris Turner
Web: www.voteChrisTurner.com
Location: Tarrant County
Kerry 2004: 37.3%
Moody 2006: 47.2%
DPI 2008: 42.5%
District 96 is in southern Tarrant County and sits between the districts recently captured by Democrats Dan Barrett and Paula Pierson. HD96 displays Democratic growth patterns similar to those two districts. Chris Turner is an excellent centrist candidate with a strong sense of responsibility to voters. He is the former District Director for popular Congressman Chet Edwards. Turner is an ideal candidate to run against Bill Zedler, an unpopular partisan Republican and Craddick loyalist who received just 52% against an unknown and unfunded challenger in 2006.
District 101
Incumbent: Open – Mike Anderson (Latham)
Democratic Challenger: Robert Miklos
Location: Dallas County – Mesquite
Web: www.RobertMiklos.com
Kerry 2004: 40.3%
Moody 2006: 48.8%
DPI 2008: 43.8%
District 101 is an East Dallas County District that is becoming increasingly Democratic. Bill Moody received just under 49% of the vote in the District in 2006, while running for the Texas Supreme Court. This bodes well for Democratic candidate Robert Miklos, who has an impressive resume as an attorney and former Dallas County Prosecutor. Mike Anderson won a Republican primary over the incumbent Thomas Latham, making this an open seat pickup opportunity.
District 102
Incumbent: Tony Goolsby
Democratic Challenger: Carol Kent
Web: www.ElectCarolKent.com
Location: Dallas County
Kerry 2004: 43.8%
Moody 2006: 46.2%
DPI 2008: 42.2%
District 102 is a north Dallas District with a significant Democratic base slowly overtaking traditional Republican neighborhoods. Incumbent Republican Tony Goolsby managed to hold the district in ’04 and ’06, but only after stooping to controversial and possibly illegal vote suppression tactics. Goolsby is currently being sued for libel and slander making him even more vulnerable than in earlier cycles. (Read more here) Carol Kent is a moderate Democrat, life-long District resident and former President of the Richardson Independent School District. Her background in education and her strong local ties make Carol a perfect fit for this Dallas County District.
District 133
Incumbent: Jim Murphy
Democratic Challenger: Kristi Thibaut
Location: West – Houston
Kerry 2004: 43.9%
Moody 2006: 43.8%
DPI 2008: 42.1%
Kristi Thibaut is running in this evolving Houston district against “far right” freshmen Republican Jim Murphy. Kristi is a local businesswoman, highly regarded for her work with the local Chapter of the American Heart Association, and her work promoting youth hunting and firearms safety. Thibaut ran several points ahead of other Democrats in 2006, and the district is expected to perform better in a presidential year.
District 144
Incumbent: OPEN – Ken Legler (Talton)
Democratic Challenger: Joel Redmond
Location: Houston – Pasadena
Kerry 2004: 35.8%
Moody 2006: 44.9%
DPI 2008: 39.8%
Joel Redmond is a well qualified candidate running in District 144, the seat vacated by Robert Talton, based in Pasadena in Southeast Harris County. Redmond is a conservative Pasadena native perfectly suited for his district. He is a businessman and lay minister. He is running against first-time candidate Ken Legler, a right wing Republican who barely won a runoff election over a moderate school board member in the Republican Primary. Legler is a board member for the Texas Association of Business, which was implicated in the felony charges against Tom DeLay.
Four more candidates working their way onto the Map
In every campaign cycle there are candidates who are underestimated but who perform better than their districts or overcome other early obstacles . The four races below face additional challenges to stay competitive in the Fall, but the Democratic nominees are quickly making strides to join the top tier. These are good candidates who may emerge as top challengers very soon.
District 55
Incumbent: OPEN – Ralph Sheffield (Delisi)
Democratic Challenger: Sam Murphey
Location: Killeen -Central Texas
Web: www.SamMurphey.com
Kerry 2004: 27.8%
Moody 2006: 37.9%
DPI 2008: 33.3%
Sam Murphey’s military background and career as popular Congressmen Chet Edward’s District Director make this a much more competitive race than the numbers may show. The combination of a good candidate running for an open seat against a Republican nominee tainted by an ugly primary may put this District on the Texas Victory Map.
District 112
Incumbent: OPEN – Angie Chen Button (Hill)
Democratic Challenger: Sandra VuLe
Location: Richardson/Garland
Web: www.SandraVuLe.com
Kerry 2004: 35.4%
Moody 2006: 41.8%
DPI 2008: 36.8%
Sandra VuLe is a smart, tough candidate running a vigourous race for the open seat abandoned by retiring Republican Fred Hill. Her opponent, Angie Chen Button, barely survived a nasty Republican runoff. Button has supported Democrats in the past and will likely have trouble with the Republican base. Meanwhile, VuLe’s passion and deep roots in the community and the district’s significant Vietnamese population give her significant crossover appeal
District 129
Incumbent: John E. Davis
Democratic Challenger: Sherrie L. Matula
Location: SW Harris Ct.
Web: http://SherrieMatula.com
Kerry 2004: 32.2%
Moody 2006: 39.2%
DPI 2008: 34.4%
Sherrie Matula’s lifetime of work as a teacher and school board member contrasts sharply with John Davis’ votes in the House to cut CHIP and give inflated contracts to Accenture. Matula is a passionate campaigner and aggressive fundraiser. Davis ran more then 10 points behind most Republican candidates in 2006, showing vulnerability.
District 138
Incumbent: Dwayne Bohac
Democratic Challenger: Virginia McDavid
Location: Houston
Web: www.VoteMcDavid.com
Kerry 2004: 39.7%
Moody 2006: 45.1%
DPI 2008: 40.0%
Virginia “Ginny” McDavid is running a spirited race against Dwayne Bohac in District 138. McDavid has inspired a significant activist following in the District. This, coupled with the Democratic resurgence in Harris County, should help McDavid as she works to knock off Bohac.vvvvv
