- Texas State House – For the second cycle in a row, Democrats made up significant ground in the Texas State House, winning a net three seats. The State House now stands at 74 Democrats, 75 Republicans and one race still undecided subject to a recount. It is very likely that Republican Speaker Tom Craddick will be deposed. Should Democrats prevail in the recount and draw to a 75/75 tie, it is possible that the new Speaker will be a Democrat.
- Key Urban Counties – Democrats won major victories and are quickly establishing our party as the dominant force in urban Texas politics. In Harris County where Republicans had previously held every single county-wide office, Democrats won 23 of 27 judicial races and captured the Sheriff’s office. In Dallas County, Democrats built upon the 2006 sweep by winning three additional judicial seats, claiming the Tax Assessor-Collector’s Office and re-electing the Democratic Sheriff by a comfortable margin.
- Texas State Senate – Democrats defeated a sitting Republican incumbent for the first time in a decade when Democrat Wendy Davis beat Republican Kim Brimer in Fort Worth-based Senate District 10. Democrats could claim an additional Senate seat should Chris Bell win a December run-off in Bay Area Senate District 17.
Texas State House – Virtual Parity
Net Plus 3 (maybe 4)
Democrats captured six Republican held seats while yielding three seats for a net gain of three. Another Democratic challenger ended Election Day only 29 votes down, and a recount is expected. If the Democratic candidate is seated, then the Texas State House will be split evenly at 75 seats apiece. Whether tied or with a one seat Republican Majority, the current Texas House Speaker, Tom Craddick will likely be replaced.
The winner is not yet determined in Irving based HD 105. Democrat Bob Romano trails Republican Linda Harper-Brown by just 29 votes in a race where over 40,000 ballots were cast. Provisional and overseas ballots will be counted on Monday, November 10, 2008. A formal recount will likely be ordered after these ballots are tabulated.
Democrats lost three seats in the Texas House – Juan Garcia (HD32 – Corpus Christi), Dan Barrett (HD97 – Fort Worth), and Donnie Dippel (HD17 – La Grange). Each of these districts was drawn to the advantage of the Republican candidate. As a point of political reference, John Kerry won an average of just 35% of the vote in the three districts.
Republican Seats Captured
| District | Democrat | Percentage | Republican | Percentage |
| 52 | Diana Maldonado | 48.6% | Bryan Daniel | 47.4% |
| 78 | Joseph E. Moody | 51.5% | Dee Margo | 45.1% |
| 96 | Chris Turner | 51.3% | Bill Zedler (I) | 46.6% |
| 101 | Robert Miklos | 50.6% | Mike Anderson | 49.4% |
| 102 | Carol Kent | 53.0% | Tony Goolsby (I) | 47.0% |
| 133 | Kristi Thibaut | 50.6% | Jim Murphy (I) | 49.4% |
Democratic Seats Lost
| District | Democrat | Percentage | Republican | Percentage |
| 17 | Donnie Dippel | 42.8% | Tim Kleinschmidt | 54.0% |
| 32 | Juan Garcia III (I) | 46.8% | Todd Hunter | 50.1% |
| 97 | Dan Barrett (I) | 42.7% | Mark M. Shelton | 55.4% |
Winner Not Yet Determined
| District | Democrat | Percentage | Republican | Percentage |
| 105 | Bob Romano | 48.7% | Linda Harper-Brown (I) | 48.7% |
Key Urban Counties
Harris County
Democrats broke the Republican stranglehold on Harris County by winning 24 of 27 contested judicial races. Harris County overwhelmingly elected Adrian Garcia as County Sheriff and elected Vince Ryan as County Attorney. Barack Obama carried Harris County winning 50.41% of the vote. U.S. Senate Candidate Rick Noriega did even better winning 50.69% of the vote.
Democrats had a 47,162 straight ticket vote advantage in Harris County. This is an enormous swing from 2004 when the Republicans had a 45,358 vote advantage in Straight Ticket voting.
Harris Democrats Straight Ticket Advantage
| Votes | Percent of Straight Ticket | |
| Straight Democratic | 390,444 | 52.92% |
| Straight Republican | 343,282 | 46.53% |
| Dem Advantage | 47,162 | 6.39% |
Dallas County
Democrats protected and expanded upon their 2006 gains in Dallas County. In addition to adding two State House Seats, Democrats held on in hotly contested races in HD 106 and 107, reelecting Kirk England and Allen Vaught. Sheriff Lupe Valdez was reelected with 54.7% of the vote. Democrats also won all the contested judicial races electing Ken Molberg and Eric Moye among others.
| Office | Democrat | Vote % | Republican | Vote % |
| Sheriff | Lupe Valdez | 54.6% | Lowell Cannaday | 45.3% |
| Tax Assessor-Collector | John R. Ames | 53.1% | David Childs | 46.8% |
| Dallas County Judicial Average* | Democratic Judges | 58.3% | Republican Judges | 41.7% |
*Dallas County Judicial Average is an average of the Dallas District and Criminal Court Races.
Dallas Democrats Straight Ticket Advantage
Straight Ticket Votes made up more than 64% of all the votes cast. Democrats had a 101,346 vote advantage in straight ticket voting.
| Votes | Percent of Straight Ticket | |
| Straight Democratic | 289,092 | 60.3% |
| Straight Republican | 187,746 | 39.2% |
| Dem Advantage | 101,346 | 21.1% |
Texas State Senate
Net Plus 1 (maybe 2)
As the Lone Star Project forecast more than a year ago, Republican State Senator Kim Brimer (SD10) could not hold his seat against a strong mainstream Democratic opponent. In fact, Wendy Davis beat Kim Brimer becoming the first Democrat to defeat a sitting Republican State Senator in a decade. Davis won 49.9% of the vote in a District where George W. Bush won almost 60% of the vote in 2004
Chris Bell is headed to a runoff election in Senate District 17. The November 4th contest was technically a special election, which required a candidate to win more than 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff. Chris Bell easily ran first with 39 percent, but fell short of the 50 percent threshold because a Tom Craddick backed stalking horse Democrat pulled 13 percent. The two Democrats combined received over 52% of the vote. Bell now heads to a runoff with Republican Joan Huffman who garnered just 25.2%.
| District | Democrat | Percentage | Republican | Percentage |
| 10 | Wendy R. Davis | 49.9% | Kim Brimer (I) | 47.5% |
| 17 | Chris Bell* | 38.4% | Joan Huffman | 26.1% |
*Runoff expected in early December
DeLay still dragging Texas down
The loss of incumbent Congressman Nick Lampson and the failure of two high quality Democratic challengers to break through in very tough districts is a reminder of the extreme Republican bias built into the Texas congressional map hand drawn by Tom DeLay in 2003. DeLay’s redistricting map resulted in a loss of 85 years in Texas seniority after the 2004 elections and has left Texas with arguably the weakest large state congressional delegation in the Country.
Lampson mounted a heroic effort to hold CD22, but was the top target of National Republicans and could not hold the heavily Republican district. Democrats Michael Skelly in CD7 and Larry Joe Doherty in CD10 ran aggressive campaigns, but could not overcome the partisan Republican bias of the DeLay map. As a bright spot, though, incumbent Ciro Rodriguez was able to hold his CD23 seat against a well funded opponent.
Statewide Opportunities Looming
As a result of the targeted and systematic approach taken over the last two election cycles, Democrats are now positioned to make a realistic effort to compete for state-wide offices in 2010.
This year, Barack Obama did considerably better than John Kerry did in 2004. Obama received 685,000 more votes than Kerry and won 5.5% more of the vote than Kerry. Where Democrats were competing and investing resources, such as in Harris County and Dallas County, Obama won a majority of the votes.
In the coming weeks as 2008 election data becomes available, the Lone Star Project will conduct an in-depth analysis of the opportunities for Democrats in 2010 statewide elections and make recommendations on the approach potential statewide Democratic candidates should take to capture statewide office.
| Voters | Percentage | ||
| 2004 | Kerry | 2,832,704 | 38.22% |
| Bush | 4,526,917 | 61.08% | |
| 2008 | Obama | 3,518,082 | 43.70% |
| McCain | 4,463,907 | 55.38% | |
| Difference | Dem | 685,378 | 5.5% |
| Rep | -63,010 | -5.7% | |
