April 10, 2008) However, it was not an effective political strategy. Very few Republicans actually crossed over and those who did had no meaningful effect on the election.
Now the crossover strategy is being discussed again. This time, it’s suggested that Democrats express their intense dislike for Rick Perry by voting for Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 Republican Primary. The fact that Democrats revile Rick Perry is certainly understandable, but crossing over to the Republican Primary is simply wasting a vote.
The 2008 Democratic Primary was decided by Democrats
| Turnout | Percentage | |
| 2008 Democratic Primary Voters | 2,874,986 | 100% |
| 2008 Democratic primary Voters who have voted in the previous 3 Republican Primaries | 15,415 | 0.5% |
| 2008 Democratic Primary Voters who have voted in the previous 2 Republican Primaries | 30,396 | 1.1% |
| Source: Texas Secretary of State and Lone Star Project Data | ||
Despite Rush Limbaugh’s hype, Republican crossover voters had no impact on the 2008 Texas Democratic Primary results. An examination of Texas voting records shows that barely one in a hundred 2008 Democratic Primary Voters had significant previous Republican voting history. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in the 2008 Texas Primary by more than 100,000 votes, far more than any apparent crossover vote from Republicans. Clinton narrowly won the popular vote by maximizing her base support among long-time Democratic voters and Democratic Hispanic voters.
The 2010 Republican Primary will be decided by Republicans
The 2010 Republican Primary is even less likely than the 2008 Democratic Primary to be impacted by crossover voters.
- The 2008 election featured a Presidential campaign, attracting broad attention and a record turnout for both parties. In 2010, there will be no Presidential buzz or national attention.
- Even with the expected sucker-punching, name-calling brawl between Perry and Hutchison, Republican Primary turnout will likely be close to 2006, when 655,919 voters turned out for Republicans. So, even if the ratio of crossover voters in 2010 equals that of the 2008 Democratic Primary and all of the crossover votes go to Hutchison, she will garner only about 7,215 more votes – not nearly enough to significantly affect the results.
- As the 2010 Republican primary race develops, both Perry and Hutchison will appeal to hard line Republican primary voters, touting their allegiance to causes and policies that are opposed by both Democrats and many independent Texas voters.
Clearly, any Democrat who participates in the 2010 Republican Primary will be squandering their vote.
Democrats will be even less inclined to crossover and vote for Hutchison as they learn more about her anti-family record on key issues.
Hutchison Report Card
| Environment | 12% |
| Women | 19% |
| Choice | 0% |
| Retired Americans | 0% |
| Children | 10% |
| Education | D |
| Voted with Bush | 91.1% |
Sources: League of Conservation Voters (2008), National Organization for Women (2007-2008), NARAL Pro-Choice America (2008),National Education Association (2007-2008), Alliance for Retired Americans (2007), Children’s Defense Fund (2006), The Washington Post Vote Database
