Handicapping a contested Texas Speaker race – or any legislative leadership race – from the outside can lead to bad bets. It’s an insider game played within an exclusive club of individual politicians who have their own views, quirks, and ambitions.
Some members make their decisions based on sincere policy concerns, partisan political considerations, or rigid ideology. With some, it’s a crass transaction that turns on what they get for the support given.
Often, the choice comes down to personal considerations – was a kind word offered at the right time? Was there a crude jab or thoughtless snub at the wrong time? Was a promise given and kept, or one given and broken?
So, I won’t try to guess whether Representative David Cook from Tarrant County, Representative Dustin Burrows from Lubbock, or some other option who rides in late gets the job.
However, what I will forecast is that if David Cook is chosen, he will take the gavel as the weakest Texas House Speaker in recent memory.
Cook is a junior member with just two terms under his belt. During his short tenure, he’s been a go-along guy working from the backbench who aligned himself with established House leaders but didn’t become one. He fell in line and followed orders – including voting to impeach Ken Paxton.
At first, Cook becoming the choice of State House MAGA hardliners was surprising. Few would have predicted that bomb-throwing troublemakers like blustering blowhard Brian Harrison, oddball ideologue Tony Tinderholt, and addled Trump alumna Katrina Pierson would unite behind a leadership loyalist like David Cook.
Who would think that ethically challenged AG Ken Paxton would travel the state pressuring House members to back a Speaker candidate who wanted him removed from office?
However, when considered more carefully, David Cook’s position as the MAGA candidate makes sense. None of the bomb-throwers can pull together the backing needed to become Speaker themselves. Their next best option is to elect a Speaker they own.
Cook fits the bill. He was willing to betray and break from established House leaders and then surrender both his judgment and his principles by adopting every item in the Republican Party of Texas nutjob legislative agenda. He has made himself entirely beholden to and dependent upon burn-it-all-down MAGA ideologues.
And, of course, Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Ken Paxton are more than happy to welcome a new Speaker whose support comes from House Members who are more loyal to them than to their figurehead leader.
So, as it turns out, a weaker Speaker is not the problem; it’s their plan.
Matt Angle is Director of the Lone Star Project. Prior to founding the Lone Star Project, Angle spent over 20 years as a congressional staff member observing and participating in a number of leadership races.
