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Demeanor and Geography Favor Veasey in CD33 Run-off

A Lone Star Project analysis of turnout and Democratic candidate support in the May 29th Texas Democratic primary in new Congressional District 33 confirms earlier projections that the configuration of CD33 favors a strong candidate from Tarrant County with the temperament and ability to build coalitions. What’s more, first place finisher Marc Veasey ran further ahead of second place candidate Domingo Garcia than geography and demographics alone can explain. It appears that Garcia’s failure to support major North Texas employers GM, American Airlines and Lockheed along with his personal attacks of Veasey reinforced his reputation for divisiveness and alienated working class voters in CD33.
Expect Veasey to expand support rapidly

A Lone Star Project analysis of turnout and Democratic candidate support in the May 29th Texas Democratic primary in new Congressional District 33 confirms earlier projections that the configuration of CD33 favors a strong candidate from Tarrant County with the temperament and ability to build coalitions. What’s more, first place finisher Marc Veasey ran further ahead of second place candidate Domingo Garcia than geography and demographics alone can explain. It appears that Garcia’s failure to support major North Texas employers GM, American Airlines and Lockheed along with his personal attacks of Veasey reinforced his reputation for divisiveness and alienated working class voters in CD33.

 

Vote %

Tarrant County

 62%

Dallas County

 38%

Tarrant County turnout made up well over half the vote

In our initial report on the district, the Lone Star Project predicted that one half to two thirds of the primary vote would likely come from Tarrant County. From the total of all votes cast, 62 percent came from Tarrant while 38 percent came from Dallas. The vote in Dallas was not lower than in other years, it simply followed the pattern of earlier primaries. Garcia’s activity did not change the turnout dynamics at all. If the pattern repeats itself in the run-off victory is likely out of reach for Garcia.

Notable stat: Almost as many votes were cast in Veasey’s HD95 (36% of total) as were cast in all of Dallas County (38% of total).

Veasey’s House District 95 provided a disproportionate vote

66.1% percent of Veasey’s State House District 95 is contained within CD33 and HD95 made up 36% percent of the May 29th turnout. Veasey, of course, dominated the vote in his home base. Conversely, 87.3% percent of House District 104 in Dallas County, which is Garcia’s base, is contained within CD33, yet HD104 accounted for less than 18% percent of the May 29th turnout out. (Sources: TLC Redistricting Report 340 PLANH309-PLANC235; Tarrant and Dallas County Elections.)

 veasey
Marc Veasey

domingo
Domingo Garcia 

Differing styles benefit Veasey

New CD33 is quite diverse, both in terms of race and geography. However, an important common element among Democratic primary voters in new CD33 is that they come from working class neighborhoods where jobs, healthcare and retirement security are crucial. If anything unites the district, it is an appreciation for leaders who protect and defend local jobs.

Veasey has used measured rhetoric and has carefully nurtured his base in Tarrant County while appealing to voters new to him in Dallas County by emphasizing his commitment to working families and retirees. Conversely, Domingo Garcia has played to type, using red hot rhetoric and lashing out at perceived enemies. Crassly, Garcia used a racially charged insult calling Veasey, an African American man, an “errand boy.”

Read and see Garcia’s criticizism of local employers:

lspfwst
LSP Report here and the Bud Kennedy article in the Fort Worth Star-Telegramhere.

 

Attacks on local employers may have boxed in Garcia

More damaging, though, Garcia has limited his appeal and badly harmed his campaign by publicly attacking three of the major employers in North Texas – General Motors, Lockheed Martin and American Airlines. The three companies employ over 40,000 North Texans, thousands of whom are members of major labor unions. Thousands more retirees from the companies live in the district. Perhaps realizing his mistake, Garcia has awkwardly tried to redirect his criticisms to only company management, but it is likely too late given that virtually every major labor union along with the Texas AFL-CIO and the American Federation of Teachers have endorsed Veasey. 

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