TX Republican incumbents could face serious primary and/or general election challenges.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott has called a Special Session of the Legislature that begins July 21st. Texas Legislators and the public want it to be about ironing out credible and workable THC policy. But Donald Trump is demanding that instead of fixing a problem, they create a new and much worse one – redrawing the Texas Congressional map to add up to five Republican-favored seats.
If Texas Republicans fold and redraw, it will be a bitter and divisive battle that will make Congress less responsive and far less reflective of Texas voters and our diversity. Texans don’t want it, but Trump does. And what do we know about Greg Abbott and today’s Texas Republicans? They are fully compliant MAGA submissive. They don’t question orders from Trump or his emissaries. They bow and bend over.
In order to squeeze more Republican seats from the current map, they must further pack and crack minority voters, but that’s not all. They must also thin out Republican strongholds and force at least some Republican incumbents to take seats that are less safe. It requires substantial changes in the geography of many of the 25 current Republican-held seats – the type of changes that encourage ambitious legislators and local Republicans to challenge incumbents who would otherwise be left alone.
Keep in mind, too, that MAGA mouthpieces like the Texas Scorecard and the Dallas Express won’t hesitate to go after Republican incumbents who fail whatever extremist purity test is applied at the time. A cadre of White nationalist billionaires like Tim Dunn and Monty Bennett fund a network of political operations masquerading as journalism. The network pours funds into extremist super PACs and long-established hate groups like True Texas Project.
Until a proposed map surfaces, we won’t know which Republican incumbents will be removed from their comfort zones and forced to fight for re-election in a competitive primary, a general election, or both. But we’ve provided below an early list of Republicans who should keep their heads on a swivel, because the ax swung at Democrats might take their heads off.
The Border
- Monica De La Cruz (CD15): De La Cruz already sits in a majority-Hispanic district in which she lost the Hispanic vote and won only due to Anglo support. She must worry about losing to a Democrat in a district made more competitive in the general election.
- Tony Gonzales (CD23): Gonzales almost lost the Republican Primary in 2024. Any meaningful change in his district could make him even more vulnerable in the primary to a hard challenge from a true MAGA opponent.
Greater Houston Region
- Dan Crenshaw (CD2): Crenshaw might be cross-pressured. CD2 could be made more competitive in the General Election and also configured to include even more ideologically extreme Republicans who might rally behind a more MAGA Republican candidate than the incumbent. State Representative Steve Toth is already making noise that he might challenge Crenshaw.
- Troy Nehls (CD22): Nehls’s current district was made more Republican in 2021 after he underperformed in the 2020 general election. If he takes on more Democratic parts of Fort Bend or Harris Counties, he could find himself back in a competitive environment.
- Wesley Hunt (CD38): Hunt won his current solid Republican seat after Republican leaders cleared the Republican primary for him. If his geography changes, it may be harder to keep a credible Republican from challenging him. Also, Hunt is making noise about running for the U.S. Senate, which might be a tempting place to put more Democratic neighborhoods.
DFW Metroplex
- Keith Self (CD3): Self is heavily reliant on his base in Collin County where he served as County Judge for 10 years. If his district extends far into Dallas County, he could face competition in the General Election. If he’s pushed into more rural North Texas counties, he would need to be leery of a Republican primary challenger.
- Lance Gooden (CD5): Gooden too must avoid going further into Dallas County which would invite a credible Democratic challenger.
- Jake Elzey (CD6): Jake Elzey could also be cross-pressured. If he’s pushed further into Dallas or Tarrant Counties, the district becomes tempting for Democrats. He also must be on guard for a Republican challenger like MAGA Republican State Representative Brian Harrison.
- Craig Goldman (CD12): Goldman was elected in 2024 after a brutal primary challenge from funded and MAGA-favored candidate John O’Shea. If Goldman takes on more rural counties, he could face O’Shea again or an even tougher and better-funded MAGA opponent. If CD12 is extended into Tarrant County, Goldman will almost be guaranteed both a Republican primary challenger and a credible Democratic general election opponent.
- Beth Van Duyne (CD24): Van Duyne is already a tempting target in her current district. If she takes on more Democratic neighborhoods in Dallas or Tarrant Counties, she would be a top Democratic target.
San Antonio-Austin Corridor
- Mike McCaul (CD10): McCaul’s district extends from Austin in central Texas far to the east all the way to the Harris County (Houston) border. He could see changes in both ends of his district that could encourage a credible primary and a credible Democratic general election opponent.
- Chip Roy (CD21): Roy’s district extends from Austin to the south and includes a large part of San Antonio. Roy, too, may have to deal with changes at both ends of his district that might encourage an ambitious primary or general election opponent.
| Also read the Lone Star Project report explaining how adding even one Republican seat means worsening a map considered among the worst racial and political gerrymanders in the country. The lopsided 25R-13D Republican advantage (66%) is far out of proportion to statewide political results and the racial makeup of Texas. |
